Overview of Election Results

Contests across the map to determine control of the U.S. Congress, as well as governorships in 36 states, were among the races that voters across the nation had a say in as ballots were cast this week.

Heading into Election Day, Republicans held majorities in the U.S. House of Representatives (218 Republicans, 214 Democrats, one independent, and two vacancies) and U.S. Senate (53 Republicans, 45 Democrats, and two independents who caucus with Democrats).

In Virginia, Democrats held six seats in the Commonwealth’s 11 U.S. House districts, while Republicans held five seats. Democrats also held both statewide U.S. Senate seats. One Senate seat and all 11 House seats were on the ballot Tuesday.

Pre-election polling suggested that Democrats had a statistically significant generic ballot polling edge, leading some pundits to predict that the party would regain a majority in the 435-seat U.S. House of Representatives and, depending on the size of a potential surge of voter support, had a puncher’s chance to also gain a numerical advantage in the 100-seat U.S. Senate. The generic ballot edge notwithstanding, polling indicates that voters hold unfavorable views of both parties, though they are presently more sour on the GOP than Democrats.

That turned out to be the case as Democrats rode a wave election to gain a minimum 228-139 seat majority in the U.S. House (as of this morning, 68 races had yet to be called by the Associated Press) and a minimum 54-44 seat edge for Democrats in the U.S. Senate (the outcome in two races remained uncertain at the time of publication), according to unofficial results.

Overview of Virginia Results

In Virginia, unofficial results showed that Democrats appeared to claim victory in eight of the Commonwealth’s 11 congressional seats. Incumbent U.S. Senator Mark Warner also comfortably won a fourth six-year term over Republican challenger Bert Mizusawa, a retired U.S. Army major general, unofficially by more than 795,000 votes for a 22.39 percent margin of victory.

In Virginia-based U.S. House races, Democrats comfortably held onto seats representing districts in Northern Virginia, the Richmond area, and Hampton Roads. The party had pickups where Democratic challengers unseated incumbent Republicans.

One is the South Hampton Roads-based 2^nd District seat won by former Congresswoman Elaine Luria, who defeated incumbent U.S. Representative Jen Kiggans by more than 28,000 votes, an 8.5 percent margin of victory. The other is the 1^st District spanning Central Virginia, portions of the Hampton Roads Peninsula, the Middle Peninsula, and the Northern Neck.

In that contest, 10-term U.S. Representative Rob Wittman unofficially appears to have been narrowly unseated by Henrico County Commonwealth’s Attorney Shannon Taylor in a race decided by about 9,400 votes out of more than 406,000 ballots cast.

Virginia Democrats’ congressional victories Tuesday did not extend west of the Richmond area, where Republican incumbents retained seats spanning from Charlottesville to the Shenandoah Valley and Southwest Virginia.

Unlike many other states across the nation, Virginia did not have a gubernatorial contest or (with one exception) any state legislative races on the ballot this year. The Commonwealth has a unique off-year election cycle – Governors are elected the year after presidential elections, and the next legislative races are in 2027 when all 140 seats in the Virginia General Assembly will be on the ballot.

A sole legislative special election was held this week to fill a vacancy in the Virginia House of Delegates’ 20^th District seat that includes portions of Prince William County, Manassas, and Manassas Park. The special election was necessitated by the resignation of former Delegate Michelle Maldonado (D) in May. The district is rated as “Leans Democratic” and was won by the Democratic nominee – Luna Vasquez; she significantly out-spent an under-funded Republican contender for the seat – who will serve the roughly one-year remaining on the current term.

The outcome of that race did not meaningfully alter the representative dynamics in the Virginia General Assembly where Democrats held a 63-seat majority (now 64) in the 100 member House of Delegates. Democrats have a 21-19 edge in the Virginia Senate.

Voters in the Old Dominion were presented with several proposed state constitutional amendments related to enshrining abortion rights, gay marriage, and automatic restoration of voting rights for felons after incarceration. All three were comfortably approved by Virginia votes.

And voters in many localities across the Commonwealth cast ballots in certain municipal races and had a choice on authorizing a 1 percent local option retail sales tax to fund school and capital project construction; new capital bond debt to fund utility, infrastructure, transportation, education, waste management, human services, and public safety projects; and to allow pari-mutuel wagering in their community. Of the 47 localities that held a referendum on authorizing a 1 percent local option retail sales tax, 15 voted to approve the tax, while 32 voted to reject it.

Additional information on state election results can be accessed at the Virginia Department of Elections and Virginia Public Access Project websites.

The National Environment

This year’s elections were held as many Americans express concern about inflation driving up prices on consumer goods such as gas and groceries, housing affordability, and anxiety about international affairs – seven in 10 voters now say the country is on the wrong track as we head into the holiday season.

Midterm elections can be a referendum on public perceptions about the party in control of the White House – President Trump’s approval rating is currently underwater, hovering around 40 percent. When the electorate is discontented, midterm voters often reject members of the President’s party at the polls and hand congressional majorities to the opposition party.

That pattern was on display again this year as Democrats won seats in places where Republican typically have electoral success. Those results even occurred in several states where the GOP orchestrated mid-decade redistricting plans in an effort to boost the party’s election prospects.

On Tuesday, Democrats unofficially won battleground state Senate races in Georgia, Michigan, New Hampshire, North Carolina, and Ohio. The party also won Senate races in places that historically have been hospitable to Republican candidates: Iowa, Kansas, Maine, Texas, and South Carolina.

That momentum also carried over to gubernatorial races where Democrats won in several states with Republican Governors. Georgia voters elected former Atlanta Mayor Keisha Lance Bottoms (D) as the first black female Governor in U.S. history. Three term Texas Governor Greg Abbott (R) was defeated by state legislator Gina Hinojosa, who became the first Democrat elected Governor in the Lone Star state since 1990. Last night, Democrats also won gubernatorial races in Iowa, Nevada, an Ohio. Each of those states had a Republican Governor.

Looking ahead, the results of the 2026 midterm elections will likely shape the federal policy environment heading into the second half of President Trump’s term, have ripple effects leading into the 2027 Virginia General Assembly session, and impact the political landscape ahead of the 2028 presidential election. Below is further analysis on how the election results may shape the federal and state policy outlook going forward.

Federal Business Policy Outlook with Democrats in Control of Congress

With Democrats in control of both chambers of the U.S. Congress, there will be pressure from different wings of the party to pursue parallel governing and political strategies.

Under unified Democratic control, lawmakers could seek to modify or reverse portions of Republican-enacted tax, energy, environmental, health care, permitting, and spending policies, including provisions in H.R. 1. Lacking veto-proof majorities, however, Democrats may still face structural challenges to enacting their legislative priorities. Even if they get legislation through Congress, the President still has the power of the veto pen.

One Democratic governance approach will likely focus on investigating President Trump’s administration and his various family business interests. Progressives in the party are also likely to push for policies related to:

• Federal minimum wage increases;
• Expanded collective-bargaining protections;
• Additional paid leave requirements;
• Enhanced antitrust enforcement;
• Corporate tax increases;
• Expanded health care subsidies or a Medicare-for-all nationalized system;
• Greater federal climate and emissions regulation; and
• Additional ESG- and disclosure-oriented requirements.

The potential business impacts from such policies could include increased labor and operational costs, additional compliance obligations, greater regulatory uncertainty in energy-intensive industries, and potential expansion of infrastructure, workforce, and green energy investments.

State Business Policy Outlook: Implications for the 2027 Virginia General Assembly Session

The 2027 Virginia General Assembly session starting in January is expected to serve as the launching point for campaigns leading into legislative elections at the end of the year. This could mean that lawmakers facing serious ballot competition will pursue so-called brochure legislation designed to gain public attention, irrespective of practical policy implications.

Tuesday’s strong Democratic federal showing is also likely to embolden advocates who may encourage the legislature to pursue more politically progressive policies. With Democratic control of the three branches of state government, business leaders should closely monitor proposals involving:

• Repeal of right-to-work law;
• Expanded labor mandates;
• Industry-specific regulations;
• Additional environmental requirements;
• Restrictions affecting data centers and energy infrastructure;
• New employer mandates;
• Paid leave expansion;
• Minimum wage increases;
• Procurement and contracting restrictions;
• Consumer-protection and antitrust proposals; and
• Tax policy changes affecting employers.

Conclusion

Based on the election results and the current political climate, Virginia businesses should be prepared for the prospect of facing vocal advocacy pushes for progressive policies. In this environment, the Virginia Chamber of Commerce is prepared to engage at the state and federal love to vigorously advocate for policies that are economically sound and promote continued adherence to the free market principles that have made Virginia a top state for business that is welcoming and attractive to employers looking to invest or expand in the Commonwealth.